I just ran across an old video of a keynote I did for a Mercedes Benz Vans event in Stuttgart, 10 years ago, September 2016. The 2016 post is here, the video ‘Gerd Only’ cut is here, and the entire show’s video is here. I decided to review the content and see how accurate my forecasts actually were. I used a few different AI agents, including the amazing Google NotebookLM, to analyze what I said back then, and compare it to what actually happened.
Here is the analysis, below
Here’s what I found reviewing Gerd Leonhard’s 2016 10-Year Forecasts vs. 2026 Reality
I found that Gerd Leonhard’s MB Vans keynote (~2016) accurately identified the macro-technological shifts—specifically around platform ecosystems, data as the primary economic asset, natural language voice control, and automated drone logistics—while being slightly optimistic on the timeline for full consumer vehicle autonomy and battery range.
1. Autonomous Vehicles (Partially Hit / Calibrated Velocity): Gerd predicted that within 5 to 7 years, people might never drive a car without a computer driving for them [1, 2]. Today, fully driverless robotaxis (such as Waymo) operate at commercial scale with over 500,000 paid rides per week across major cities according to **McKinsey & Company**. However, consumer passenger cars have largely adopted Level 2+ and Level 3 driver-assistance systems rather than full human driver replacement.
2. Electric Vehicle Adoption (Major Hit, Range Nuance): Gerd anticipated rapid EV expansion and suggested drivers might only charge an electric vehicle once a month [2]. According to the **International Energy Agency (IEA)**, global EV sales exceeded 20 million annually (representing 25–30% of all new car sales) and commercial electric van fleets expanded dramatically. However, average battery pack sizes (60–90 kWh) mean routine weekly or daily charging remains standard.
3. Drone & Last-Mile Logistics (Major Hit): Gerd highlighted drones delivering goods as a major technological shift in logistics [3-5]. Commercial drone delivery has transitioned into standard infrastructure: according to **Amazon News** and industry reports, Alphabet’s Wing surpassed 1 million commercial deliveries, Zipline completed over 2 million flights, and Amazon Prime Air expanded drone delivery to 500 US cities under FAA Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) approvals.
4. Data Platforms & Natural Language AI (Bullseye Hit): Gerd emphasized that data companies and platform ecosystems (like Alphabet, Apple, Uber, and Alibaba) would dominate business [6-9] and that voice control would surpass typing [10]. The emergence of modern Large Language Models (LLMs) and platform-driven logistics ecosystems confirmed this forecast.
CHAT GPT Summary below!
